Beginning of the End for Thompson? Also: Giuliani

Posted by Mike Merritt in Uncategorized on

Seems like Duncan Hunter finally came to his senses.  I’ve been saying for the last couple entries that he’d be dropping out soon, and well, after two states with poor showings, he’s finally done it.

But what about our old friend Fred Thompson?  Is he done?  We all know he was staking his claim to relevancy in this race on South Carolina, and while he did better than Romney there, he only got third place.  This, after lackluster showings in six other states.  He put all his efforts here, and didn’t even get second place.

I smell an end for his campaign.  I’ve said for a long time his mistake was coming in to it late, and then not campaigning at all in the other states.  He may have done well in Iowa if he actually made an effort there.  If he’s vying on the bible belt, well, I don’t think it’d going to help him win.  His next big test is Florida, in which he’s not even in the contest for first place.

I don’t know.  I could be wrong on this, like I was on McCain.  I didn’t think McCain could do well in the south, and yet here he is in South Carolina, the clear winner.  But, for Thompson to not even garner second place, and for him to not seem set to get close to this in Florida, I think he won’t be in it for much longer.  I expect he might hang out for a little while longer, but in the end, he won’t be in the game for the nomination.  That’s still a toss-up between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.

Notice I don’t have Giuliani in that list.  That’s because I think that he’s not going to win Florida.  He’s another Thompson.  Someone who was highly rated before the statewide contests, but when it comes down to it, he’s not been showing well, and won’t.  Like Thompson, he’s vying on one state to bring him back big time.  I think Giuliani might have had a chance in a place like New Hampshire, second place at least, if only he’d campaigned there more.  I think we’ll see a similar situation for him: he might get third, but I don’t think he’ll get his big comeback.

My overall prediction: the end is inevitable for Giuliani and Thompson.

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