Obama Win in Wisconsin Not Surprising

Posted by Mike Merritt in Election 2008, Politics on

So, Obama got Wisconsin.  Yet, the cable news nets, CNN, anyway, seem to be surprised by this.  Yet, as far as a couple days ago, I seem to remember reading that Clinton had left the state because they expected this result. Instead, they were going to focus on Texas and Ohio (with334 delegates between them).

I think what may be more interesting is how far the spread was…17 points.  This isn’t some close race.  If this were the general election, a 17 point spread would probably be defined as a landslide.  Still, however, the two are still close, thanks to proportional representation.  Obama needs to keep winning states by these kinds of numbers to pull away from Clinton quickly.  If the two come close on the two big states on March 4th, or if Clinton somehow turns it over, it’s not over for Obama, but Clinton will be back.  However, after winning the last 10 (and presumably 11) states, Obama has huge momentum going into March 4th.  Clinton’s going to find it hard regaining that lead.  She’s betting a lot on Texas and Ohio.

I don’t know.  For me, it still seems to be a Giuliani move.  Staking your claim on the big states may be an decent method if you’re way behind, but it’s not the same as winning states across the board, as Obama has done.  Obama is winning states across the country, and is now winning across a lot of the demographics.

I think it could go two ways in two weeks.  Clinton could win big in the Texas and Ohio and start looking pretty good again.  Or Obama’s momentum might carry him to those states, in which case, I’m not sure that Clinton can dig out of that.  After March 4th, there are two really big states left, and one of them, North Carolina, is in the part of the country where Obama has been doing really well: the South.

On the Republican side, it’s been looking like McCain since Super Tuesday, but I was cautious.  Because back then, there were still over 1000 delegates to be won…plenty of time for Huckabee to catch up.  I was under no delusions that Huckabee was actually going to win all those.  I was just playing Devil’s Advocate to all those who said it was mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win.

Now, after tonight, I will concede for the first time that it now really is mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win.  He could win everything after tonight and only stop McCain from getting the nomination.  Even if it happened, though, I’m still not sure it would matter.  Their unpledged delegates would probably line up behind McCain and shoe him past the finish line.  Oh, and this is without any Romney delegates.  If he does really get all of him, he’s got it.  I think it would be best for Huckabee to cut his losses and bow out gracefully.  I don’t know, though.  Perhaps like Paul, he wants to stay in to spread his message, whatever that is.

So, now we look forward to March 4th, to see where the Democrats go.  Could be big, or could be more of the same.  Stay tuned.

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