Would have posted this earlier, but I spent a great deal of the day preparing my online portfolio website. If you or your company need any video editing work done, you ought to check it out!

Anyway, CNN is reporting Obama at 2111 delegates, MSNBC is reporting 2107, CBS News is reporting 2109, ABC News is reporting 2106, and Wikipedia is reporting 2105. I’m not sure who exactly to believe, so I’ll go with a the middle of the road estimate and take MSNBC’s 2107 estimate.

As the second year I’ve really followed politics closely and the first Presidential election I’ve followed closely from beginning to finish (it’ll be my second Presidential election), I’ve been incredibly excited during the entirely primary season, for both the Democrats and the Republicans, and later on, the third parties as well. Unfortunately, the Republicans ended their primary season several months ago, so the race between the two Democrats has had to keep me occupied.

And what a race it was. The ever flip-flopping blocks of states won by either candidate, the scandals, the Florida-Michigan debacle; good or bad, I loved it all. Yet, in the end, it had to be won by somebody. And in the end, I think the better candidate won.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have much against Hillary Clinton. Her positions are more or less similar to Obama’s, and her attitude is not that bad. Some people say you either love her or hate her, but I don’t see it that way. Yes, there are some things I don’t like about her personality, and I certainly don’t love her, but I also don’t hate her. You cannot deny that she would be a tough President. You only need to look at her campaign this year to know this.

Still, I think based on personality, Obama is the candidate I like more. It’s not so much about positions when you get down to the grind, because lets face it: Obama is no saint to me there. I vehemently disagree with his positions on gun ownership, and I don’t really agree with either candidates full plans for healthcare (nor do I agree with John McCain’s plan). I disagree with Obama on his gay marriage position; I don’t expect a constitutional amendment protecting them from him. However, on other issues, I do agree with him, and because her own positions are so similar, by extension I also agree with many of Clinton’s stances. However, some issues, like gun ownership, are not so weighted in my mind that it puts me off Obama that much. I’ve got other things to worry about rather than how difficult it will be to get a gun.

So, to me it comes down to who I like better. Now, I said above I don’t think Clinton’s personality is that bad, but she does have a lot of negatives that I don’t like. I don’t agree with her “air of inevitability” regarding a Presidency. She doesn’t deserve it, no more than Obama or McCain do. That’s what is great about America, that with the right resources and drive, anybody can become President. We’re not a plutocracy here, at least not in our social consciousness. Yet, her attitude that she somehow deserves the Presidency is off-putting to me, and that is a rather large weight in my mind against her.

So, given all that I consider in a candidate for President, I can think of a no better rival pairing than Barack Obama and John McCain. I wish both of them the best of luck in the coming months, and may the best nominee win!

To anybody who is a new voter this year, or plans on re-registering to vote for a new party or at a new address, be sure to pay attention when you go to register or re-register.

I had to re-register, anyway, since I’m now back at home full time.  When I registered before my first election in 2004, I put down “Independent.”  Although it’s not incredibly important, it can make a symbolic movement meaningless if you intend on not registering for any party, but then find out later there’s an “Independent party” in your state.

In my case, there is an “Independent Party of Connecticut,” which I didn’t intend on registering with the first time.  I only found this out recently, so, when I went to go re-register, I put down “No party.”  You can also leave that box blank if you don’t want to register with a party.

My becoming an Independent (I was originally a Democrat for about a month) was due to my disappointment with political parties as a whole.  So, finding out that I was potentially part of another one was a little funny.

That said, it’s not something that’s huge to me.  But, it feels a little better to know I’m now registered as I originally intended to register!

Taking the lion’s share of the delegates, Hillary Clinton has won the nomination contest in Puerto Rico. Now only two more contests lie between now and, more or less, the end of the primary season.

Barack Obama is said to be the likely winner of South Dakota and Montana, the final two states. According to the latest poll I’ve seen for Montana, which was conducted from May 19 to the 21st, Obama leads Clinton 52-35. Unfortunately, I can’t find a poll for South Dakota any newer than about two months ago. Anything that old, is, I think, unlikely to be very reliable at this point.

The Obama team has said they think they’ll end up getting about 30 more delegates between PR, MO, and SD. If this is true, they’ll need about. I think, given today’s delegate allocation of 17 to him, and being somewhat generous with the next two contests (I’ll give him 9 on MO and 10 on SD), he could end up getting 36 delegates. Going by CNN’s current total count, adding 36 means he’ll have 2106 after Tuesday night. Under this scenario, he’ll need 12 superdelegates to swap over to or declare support for him. This is assuming no more give him an endorsement between now and Tuesday night. Under these circumstances, the numbers really are stacked against Clinton.

So, given the math, what is her endgame? Personally, I would suggest that she hold off her concession speech until he reaches that magical number, 2118. I know some of you out there think that this would just show unnecessary stubbornness, but I sort of admire the tenacity Clinton has shown in this primary season. She shares this quality with Ron Paul, who is a man with the odds against him about a hundred-fold compared to Clinton. Given past trends, I think that this is the most likely course of action she’ll take. However, with reports saying that Obama could very well get the final support he requires within 24 hours of the final results, I don’t think we’re going to have to wait long to hear that speech.

Speaking of that concession speech, what should she put in it? For starters, it could include an adamant call to the party to unite behind Obama. The party needs it. And Clinton can provide it. Second, a statement that she’s going to do her best takes to get him elected. And finally, if I were her, I’d include an impassioned plea to be selected as the running mate.  I’m not saying the pairing is ideal, but she would be silly not to try for it. She has, in fact, already done it in previous speeches.

Of course, even if Obama does reach 2118 shortly after Tuesday, she could opt to continue campaigning for the full seating of Michigan and Florida and not concede until she has it. That could mean taking it all the way to the convention. In this case, I think she becomes, well, there is no other phrase for it, a sore loser. She needs to face the fact that she supported the Michigan and Florida sanctions until she began losing the nomination. She also needs to realize that they met her halfway, and that is the nature of negotiation. And if she can’t accept that once Obama wins, that is the mark of a sore loser.

I’m a glass half-full kind of guy, though, and like to think that Clinton is a lot smarter than that. I do predict a very nice concession speech sometime shortly after Tuesday.

On to the final primaries…

I was thinking of writing something like this at some point, but Andrew Sullivan does it so well himself, I’ll link to it.

I’m with him up until the part where he states his preference.  I haven’t yet decided this myself.