Well, three really, but is anyone really counting Gravel anymore?

Out of anyone I would have guessed to drop their nomination, Edwards wouldn’t have come first on my list.  Giuliani would have been tops, for sure.  Gravel would have been on the top.  Yet, Edwards called it first.

I think it’s smart.  The man’s not stupid.  He hasn’t gotten close in any of the early primary states, so it makes sense that he’d drop out before Super Tuesday.  That way, his votes can go to someone else, or maybe both people.

I think he ran a pretty fair race.  While he wasn’t the front runner, he certainly had the advantage of not attracting as much negative attention, which allowed him to spread his “fight poverty” message pretty cleanly.  Both Obama and Clinton have pledged to carry on his message, and I hope they will.

And so, for the first time in my lifetime, at least, the nomination is down to a woman and an African American.  No matter what happens now, one of them is clinching the nomination.  Even if they don’t win the White House, this is one for the history books.

Let the games begin…

Update 9:45pm: Well, McCain has done something I didn’t think possible a couple of weeks ago.  He’s clinched South Carolina, and now Florida.  Next up now is Super Tuesday, and I now think it’ll be a race between him and Romney.  I don’t think Huckabee is out of it, but he’s certainly not where he was a while back.  Consider, though, that McCain was in the same place until very recently.

On to Giuliani.  Oh, Giuliani.  You took the Thompson approach, and like with Thompson, it just didn’t work.  I know you thought you could clasp a state and run with it, but it was not to be.  And now, tonight, that speech…that very carefully crafted speech.  No indication of which direction you’ll be going in come tomorrow.

I think, like many out there, that Giuliani is going to drop out, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.  I think if he’s smart, he will throw support behind McCain.  While not all of his supporters will switch to McCain, I think the majority would.

I’ve been saying for some time that the end was likely near for Giuliani, and now it seems that this prediction is coming true.

The breaking news is that McCain wins Florida. Will explain how it’ll affect him in a bit. Giuliani’s on now, listening in…

Well, I was wrong about Fred Thompson.  I said he’d stick around for a little longer and then drop out from the race.  Instead, he made me look bad by dropping out before Florida!

Ah, well, can’t win them all.  I can still claim a win on predicting his inevitable departure, though.  I thought it was due to happen any time now.  I think he knew that he’d do no better, if not worse, in Florida.  Then after that he’d have to face Super Tuesday.  If I had to guess a time he would have dropped out, if would have been then.  Seeing as I don’t think he’d have done well that day, that would have been the end.  But, it’s over now, and I think it’d for the best.

Giuliani’s next, I think, if he doesn’t do good in Florida.  As I said in my last entry, he’s another candidate staking his race on one state, which I think is a mistake.  If he does do well, though, I think he should definitely go on to see how Super Tuesday goes.  I don’t think Giuliani needs a win in Florida, but he needs at least second place to be anywhere near viable on February 5th.

Finally, I’ve been mum on two competing candidates, Dennis Kuchinich  and Ron Paul.  Apart from the fact that neither have a chance, both seem pretty stubborn.  I expect they’ll stick it out until at least Super Tuesday, and maybe until the end.

Saturday can’t come quick enough…

Update 1/8/08 11:22pm EST: Well, it’s more or less over.  Clinton has clinched this one, although narrowly.  This just goes to show what I said earlier, that people called it far too early.  Obama was predicted to come out of this with a huge lead, and instead he come out with a narrow loss.  I also thought McCain was called too early, though that prediction ended up being right.

I think we’ve seen now that the two races are not going to have certain winners for a long while now.  Doubtlessly, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney will keep fighting until the bitter end on this.  Same for Obama, Clinton, and Edwards (but particularly the first two) on the Democratic side.  I think it’s pretty clear now who the front runners will be for the rest of the race.  Giuliani will perhaps win his home state of New York, and perhaps another state or so, if he’s lucky.  Still, I think doing this bad in two key states has spelled the beginning of the end for him.  I think Paul will probably stay in for a while longer as well, but I would not be surprised to see Thompson and Hunter pull out soon.  In fact, if Hunter doesn’t pull before South Carolina, I’d be very surprised.  1% and 0% for the first two states, respectively, is not very good at all.  Thompson, though…come on.  He’ll probably do okay in his home state, but I think it’s over for him.  I still maintain that Huckabee’s got the lead in the South.

As for the Dems, Gravel had better start packing, too.  He’s done worse than Dodd in both states now, and Dodd pulled out last week.  It’s over Gravel, move on.  It’s going to be interesting to see how all three candidates from both sides flip back and forth between top and 2nd or 3rd in the next couple big primaries & caucuses.  However, I think it’ll be more interesting on the Republican side, because we really don’t know which of the three will clinch it.  The Dems, I think it’ll be either Obama or Clinton, but for the Republicans, it’s a big question mark at this point.

And with that, I’ll see you for South Carolina.

Update 1/8/08 10pm EST: Still way too close to call. Instead, I’ll just write something up when somebody else calls it. Not even going to try. But, I’ll say one thing. Clinton’s been going strong for a while now.

Looks like McCain clenched it for the Republicans, as expected, but looks like it’s going to be close for the Democrats. I think people were expecting this big Obama blow away, but even if he wins, I think Clinton is going to find herself with a comfortable margin behind him. And she needs it right now.

I won’t call it yet, though. Be back at about 50% of precincts reporting in.

First off, congrats to Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama for their successes in last night’s Iowa primary. It shall be interesting to see what happens in New Hampshire. I’ll start with the Dems. I’ve been tracking the total number of delegates each candidate has so far, and while Barack has more pledged delegates, Hillary is currently winning by a large margin, because of the number of superdelegates she has. I won’t try and explain myself what those are, since I don’t fully understand it myself. Here’s an explanation from CNN:

Superdelegates in the Democratic Party are typically members of the Democratic National Committee, elected officials like senators or governors, or party leaders. They do not have to indicate a candidate preference and do not have to compete for their position. If a superdelegate dies or is unable to participate at the convention, alternates do not replace that delegate, which would reduce the total delegates number and the “magic number” needed to clinch the nomination.

Many of these people seem to be rooting for Clinton, but I guess they could change their minds if Obama or Edwards look like they might come out on top. I wish I knew how it worked better – not sure if you can change your preference as a superdelegate once you’ve given one. On the other hand, it’s still early in the game, and Obama could end up coming out on top in the end. Or Edwards. One of those three, since I honestly don’t see Richardson coming close, and the remaining two don’t have a chance. Remember that even though Hillary has the higher total delegates so far, Edwards topped her (albeit by 1) in the pledged delegates. I think they will end up fighting in a lot of states, especially in the north and the liberal states. I think Hillary may have some more fighting in the South and West, but remember she’s the wife of a former President from Arkansas, so she’ll have that going for her. And the fact that she seems to be a bit more conservative than Edwards.

On the Republican side, Huckabee did extremely well, given his evangelical background. He may also do very well in the South, given the rather evangelical conservative nature of that region. However, Mitt Romney came in a pretty close second place, so it doesn’t seem that Iowans saw his Mormonism as that much of a threat. While I still think Huckabee is going to come out on top there, I think he and Romney will come close in some of those states. I won’t yet go into the west until there’s a primary or caucus out there, except that we know Huckabee will probably get trumped by Romney in Utah, home of the LDS Church.

You may notice I’ve been silent about the rest so far. That’s because they honestly didn’t do well. Indeed, John McCain didn’t even nearly match Clinton’s number of pledged delegates last night. Thompson sucked just as much, and the libertarian Ron Paul and moderate Republican Giuliani came out looking really bad. Won’t even go into Duncan Hunter, who I expect to pull out after New Hampshire.

Ron Paul’s just never going to get the votes, sadly. He’s been ignored too much, and is too far from the current Republican mainstream to win. Giuliani I expect will come up a bit better in the liberal states, where Republicans are more moderate. But, I don’t think he stands a chance in the South or West, where Republicans tend to more conservative. I’m sorry Rudy, but you’re the Ned Lamont of this race, and I think even he’ll have done better than you in the end. Hey, I could be wrong, though. He could pull through and clinch it, as the polls have been showing forever. But, I foresee bad times for him. Let me get to Thompson quickly, and then I’ll explain why I see it this way. Thompson, sorry dude, but I think you’re getting whipped. You came in too late, and even though you were high in the polls before you even declared, you’ve been too quiet! I haven’t even really heard of you campaigning, and as far as I understand, did little of it in Iowa. You have the conservative cred, man, what’s up? I think his inability to organize his campaign and really get out there is probably a result of not wanting to know what he wanted to do in the first place. I will say this, though. If a Republican doesn’t get elected in November, I expect to see him back in ’12. Just a little guessing…

Anyway, back to why Giuliani is going to end up losing the nomination. I feel as if the country hasn’t really changed that much in the last four years. Sure, even some Republicans may be getting weary of the Bush administration, but I don’t think the character of the voters that re-elected him in 2004 has really changed all that much. They’re still going to stand for many of the same issues (though perhaps not Iraq) as they did then. Look at who won last night: two of the people who’ve displayed their religious credentials the most in the past couple months. Romney and Huckabee have been really appealing to their religious base of the party, while the others have been focusing on other issues, such as Iraq and the War on Terror (McCain and Giuliani’s big thing). With that kind of atmosphere in the country, how does a moderate Republican keep on his feet? I don’t think he can. Again, I could be way off, but I think it’s going to come down, in the end, to a race between Huckabee and Romney. We shall see.

Well, there you go. I intended to talk about tonight’s awesome episode of Stargate Atlantis, too, but I really got into this. I’ll do that tomorrow.