Month: May 2008

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Hillary Clinton can’t be feeling very good right now.  I intended to start this entry two minutes ago, but then decided to make dinner first real quick.  Two minutes ago, she was up six in Indiana.  I come back, and she’s only up four now!

This is absolutely amazing.  After all the vicious Jeremiah Wright scandal coverage, the flimsy connection to former terrorist and anti-American Bill Ayers, the self-return of Reverend Wright and his throwing of Obama under the bus, the loss in Pennsylvania, and the very vicious campaign that Clinton is putting against Obama, the returns we’re seeing tonight are absolutely amazing.

Like some other states, Obama was widely believed to lose Indiana by a large amount several weeks before hand.  Then, in the day or two leading up to the election, the polls were all over the place.  Some had him losing by a lot, and others statistically tied.

Yet, in all the results I’ve seen tonight, Clinton’s gone from winning by double digits, to six, and now she’s up by only four.  She’s not gone up very much all night.  I really don’t understand it, at least, by following all the news over the past few days.  All the demographics seemed to indicate a huge Clinton win.  The likes of Rush Limbaugh were said to be sending out the Republican troops to switch sides and vote for Clinton in an open primary.

Yet, here we are, at 20 to 10pm EDT, and he keeps moving up in the percentage.  I’m sorry Hillary, you just didn’t do so well tonight.  You lost North Carolina, probably by 20% or so, and may win Indiana, but certainly not by much.

I’d be very interested in seeing the exit polls from Indiana, which CNN or anyone else doesn’t seem to be talking about.  I want some demographics for Indiana, because I can understand North Carolina, but Obama has to have had some widespread support in Indiana for any of this to make sense.

I look forward to watching the coverage tonight, but I must say one thing…this morning I asked for some direction from the voters today.  For them to give us something that will determine the general direction of the nomination.  Well, it’s certainly not anything clear, but I must say, it’s close enough.

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Indiana and North Carolina, listen up!

I like politics.  I really do.  I love learning about what the politicians in my state and the federal government are doing.  I love analyzing the bills that came before them, and deciding if they’re good or bad.  I love following elections, especially ones that rejuvenate the American interest in participating in them.

What I don’t like are long, drawn out elections, where the two candidates are damaging themselves (one candidate more than the other I think).  Now, I can appreciate the democratic process.  Holding the primaries to select a candidate is definitely a good thing.  Better than party leaders selecting for themselves.

But the process is too drawn out.  You have all these states who get to decide early on, and then a bunch right at the end who, depending on earlier results, may feel disenfranchised if one candidate is leading early on.  Look at the Republican party: they already have their candidate, and thus the later primaries are rendered meaningless.

Back on the Democratic side, the later primaries definitely are not rendered meaningless, thanks to the proportional representation, but they are threatened by the fact that one could become the inevitable candidate.

Such a thing could happen today, if either Obama or Clinton were to pull forward by a lot.  The math seems to indicate this is unlikely to be Clinton, but who really knows?

I said this about Pennsylvania, but even though Clinton did really good there, it was no landslide.  She got momentum, but didn’t become the clear leader.  So, I think today needs to be that day.  Voters in Indiana and North Carolina, please show us today where this nomination is headed.  I crave to know.

Unfortunately, the polls seem to show that she will get Indiana and he will get North Carolina, but as noted yesterday, the polls are all over the place.  Not one poll concurs with another.  So, my hopes for clear direction may be dashed after seeing the results tonight.

But, if you two states could get together and make a clear decision, I think a lot of people will breath a sigh of relief.  Not to mention one of the two candidates.  People will see where things are headed, and the later states will still have a job to do in electing their favored candidate.

So, all the primary voters in Indiana and North Carolina: give us a clear sense of where things are headed, please!

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On the eve of Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton goes negative on Obama:

[ed note: old video is now private]

Obama responds:

[ed note: old video has been removed on YouTube]

Personally, I think both ads are really equally negative (and Obama needs to be seen as being able to fight back), but I’m more interested in who’s right.

As I said a couple weeks ago, I think Clinton is wrong on the gas tax.  So, I think her ad is a waste of time and money.  I’ve already said that the people will be able to see through her and McCain’s rhetoric on the “holiday.”  So, I don’t know why she even tried to attack him on this issue.  I mean, come on, it would have been just as stupid, but I think attacking him on Bill Ayers would have been more relevant.

I don’t know what she’s thinking.  Come on, Hillary!  I defended you the other day!  Don’t make me regret it.

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What can I say that nobody else has? I’ll do a round-up of analysis on the widely ranging polls out there.

The Moderate Voice is finding a range of polls…everything from Obama is going to do badly, to he’s going to do pretty nicely. Here’s some posts:

He’s Rebounding

He’s Hurt Among Independents and Dems

He’ll Get North Carolina and She’ll Get Indiana

He Leads by 10 in North Carolina

and for some light reading, check out the demographics of voters in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, talk of an Obama/Clinton ticket has come up again.  The tone seems to be different this time, though. Last time, commentators were either talking Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama, or like me, analyzing the idea no matter which way it would go down. This time, however, nobody seems to be pretending that it’d go Clinton/Obama, and instead suggest an Obama/Clinton ticket.

Leading the charge is Andrew Sullivan, with a London Times article touting the idea. But not everyone is in favor of it. He’s getting many dissents from readers, but also some support.

Count me among those who support him. I still stand by what I said almost two months ago. There’s definitely disadvantages to such a ticket, but I think the advantages in the kind of support and demographics she could bring to the general election outweighs any negative elements.

There is the Bill Clinton factor that would need to be worked out, but maybe Obama can have him do something to get him out of the way, haha.

Bring it on, Indiana and North Carolina.

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Coming on the heels of Barack Obama’s appearance on Fox News, Hillary Clinton appeared on The O’Reilly Factor last night.

I didn’t get a chance to see the Obama interview, but read he composed himself well, better than the pre-Pennsylvania debate. I did get a chance to see the Clinton interview, and was impressed.

Anyone who’s read this blog knows that I’m not such a big Clinton fan, but won’t want to puke my guts out if she is elected. Despite her claims of experience, it actually isn’t that much more than Obama’s, in Congress, anyway. She didn’t even serve in a state Senate like he did. So her only experience is any second-hand information she might have gotten from Bill during her time as First Lady of Arkansas and the U.S.

I digress. To put it briefly, I thought she did very well.  She conducted herself very…Presidentially.  I was quite impressed.  Now, I don’t know if O’Reilly was going soft on her, but he’s not an easy questioner usually.

Good job for her.