With the mid-term elections less than a month away, I figured now would be an excellent time to give an update as to where I see things going on November 7th. Lets start with:

Lamont vs. Lieberman
It’s the fights of the two L’s (not that kind of “L”!). Lately, Lieberman has been sticking to his guns, and trying to defend his support for the war. He’s unwavering in his support for the war in purpose, but points out that he’s been opposed to Bush’s handling of it. I think it’s something to say that he is consistent in his views. At least he’s not playing down his support of it since he lost the primary.

What he’s not being consistent in is his continued support of the Democratic party. Before the primary, his party-related message was how good of a Democrat he is. After losing the primary, he’s been telling people how good of a Democrat he’s not. That is, how well he’s worked to cross party lines and get things done. It’s a interesting strategy, since he needs that Independent and Republican support to ensure he wins.

In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Lieberman leads over Lamont by 10 points, so at the moment, he’s in a comfortable position. However, who knows what could happen between now and election day, especially after the Foley scandal. Yes, Lieberman is a Democrat, but to some voters, if you’re perceived as supporting Republican policies or defending Republican scandals, you’re as good as a Republican. Lieberman is close to Bush, and remains as such, so it could hurt him. Lieberman has said some things to infuriate Democrats, especially those who’s traditionally supported him. However, those things were before this poll, and I’ve just shown how well that’s worked.

While Lieberman has lost some ground (49-39 compared to August’s 53-41), Lamont hasn’t gained much. I still think Lamont is focusing too much on how different to Lieberman he is, and on the Iraq war issue. Lamont has all this money, he should be using it to better explain his position on some of the other major issues. One of his other big issues is healthcare, yet he isn’t doing much to talk about it. Lamont has some real work to do before November, or Joe Lieberman will win. There are 7 percent undecided, but unless the Foley thing hurts Lieberman, or unless Lieberman screws up, that’s not going to help Lamont, even if he were to get all of those undecided voters.

I’m still rather undecided. A month ago, I might have been leaning more toward Lieberman, but now I’m stuck just about right in the middle. Some of the things I’ve learned about Lieberman have made me uneasy, but I’m trying to look past the war issue and see what else he’s about as well.

Rell vs. DeStefano
What can I say here? I think this race is already decided. Despite the justice department turmoil and a couple small scandals, Rell still enjoys pretty popular bi-partisan support. According to the poll, she’s leading 63-30, a shocking amount, which tell a lot about what is going to happen. I haven’t seen much from DeStefano since the primary, which doesn’t bode well for him. DeStefano beats Rell 53-42 among Democratic voters, but I’m guessing most of the people who are part of the lead would never vote for Rell, just on principle.

I’m pretty pro-Rell right now. Despite the couple small scandals in her administration (the justice department one she had no control over, but handled well all the same), I like the efforts she has made at trying to clean house. Yea, there are some questions lingering, even in my mind, over how much she might have known about Rowland’s activities, but unless we get some concrete proof she was involved, I’m willing to look past it. She was a supporter of the civil unions legislation, which I think was a good thing for her to support, given that she seems pretty religious, as far as I can tell. Even though I do support gay marriage, I feel we have to take baby steps on this issue. There are some who want all or nothing, but if we go that attitude, it’ll never happen. We’re a blue state, we’ll get there.

Simmons vs. Courtney
Another pretty close race. However, I think that unless Simmons commits some kind of major screwup, he may win. Will “Foleygate” affect him? I don’t know, but I’m better to guess it won’t. I will have to keep a closer eye on this race for my next update. I just don’t have much to say about it right now.

and, because I’d be voting here if not for college:

Larson vs. Who (?)
I don’t even know who he’s running against off the top of my head. That says a lot, I think. Yea, Larson’s keeping it.

That’s it for now. I’ll keep an eye on Lamont vs. Lieberman, and Simmons vs. Courtney.

Well, ladies and gents, it’s all over. While there are still a couple percent of precincts that need to report in, Joe Lieberman has conceded defeat to Ned Lamont, 52% to 48%. It’s not over yet, though. This was only the primary, the general election hasn’t even happened yet, though you might be fooled by watching the aftermath tonight, which looked eerily like that of after-election coverage.

So, where do I stand? Still undecided. However, I do stand by what I said in an earlier entry about Lamont. Although I like his opinons about the war and health care, he needs to show me more before I will decide to vote for him. In general, now that the primary is over, he needs to step back from the war and talk about some other things. Posing Lieberman as pro-war, pro-Bush did him well for the primary, but I don’t think this strategy will work for the general election. Here he not only has to sway Democrats, but Republicans and Independents, too. I think Lamont needs to present himself as more than the one-issue candidate in which he has sometimes been described. He should tell people where he stands elsewhere, and what he’ll do for Connecticut. The healthcare issue is a start, but he needs to show why Connecticut voters, all the Connecticut voters (not just Democrats) should elect him, or I think he’ll loose the general election. Staying the course he’s been going in will not help him come November.

So, where did Lieberman go wrong? Well, most analysts seem to be in agreement that Lamont held many small communities, and that Lieberman would have to count on the cities. I heard a lot about the primary hinging on Waterbury, which he must have lost in the end.

Click the link below for my analysis on the DeStefano-Malloy race…
Continue reading →

Well, this certainly is something. Mally and DeStafano are pretty close right now: 50.43% to 49.57%. Other results I’ve seen are 50% to 50%, but I’m guessing they’re rounding down and up respectively. I just saw this on the news, so I’m not sure, but I believe that any race within half a percent is subject to a run-off primary. The governor race is getting really close, so a run-off is not out of the question. Though, I somehow doubt we’d see another great turnout like today, so maybe it’s better for both candidates that this get decided tonight.

Back to Lamon-Lieberman, Lamont is still keeping a fair lead with 51.88 to Lieberman’s 48.12%, but the gap continues to grow smaller, and I think it is likely to continue to do so as the final results come in.

And, it may be early to call any primary, but the precincts having reported are pretty high, so I’m going to call one now: The Republican primary for U.S. House CT District 1. MacLean is a clear win here. He’s got 62% of the vote to Masullo’s 38%. She would need a miracle to win this one.

I’ll have a primary wrap up (or at least as wrapped up as I can be without staying up ridiculously late) a little later.

Well, the results are coming in. In the Senate, Lamont currently has the lead, with about 54%, to Lieberman’s 46%. However, since the results have started being reported, I noticed that as the percentages go up, the gap between the candidates comes down. It could end up being a very close race, only 38% of the precincts have reported thus far.

In the governor race, DeStefano is putting up a fair lead with 52%, though that race is already pretty close. I think this race will remain close.

Another race that is close to my heart, since it involves my Congressional district, is that of the Republican primary, the winner going on to face John Larson. Scott MacLean has a strong lead, with 61% of the vote. However, it is far to early to tell who will win. I predict that MacLean will stay pretty strong, though.

Another update later.